Planning Fallacy: Why Your Projects Are Always LateYour perfect plan ignores one crucial source of data.

From the show

Clear Thinking Strategies

Learn to make realistic predictions by looking at past results instead of ideal scenarios. The planning fallacy is our tendency to underestimate the time and cost of future tasks, even when we know similar efforts have run over. This bias happens because we focus on the specifics of our current plan—an 'inside view'—while ignoring historical data from comparable projects. The solution is to adopt an 'outside view.' By basing your estimates on the actual outcomes of past projects, you can counteract this cognitive bias, leading to more accurate timelines and successful outcomes.