Should Your Beliefs Match the Odds?The clash between gut feelings and objective reality.

From the show

Living Thought Experiments

Discover how we should align our personal beliefs with objective statistical facts. The Principal Principle states that a rational person's credence should match the known objective chance of an outcome. But this simple idea creates a deep conflict with our intuitions, especially when we have a hunch or distrust the data. Explore the gap between cold, hard probability and what it's rational to actually believe.